Background and Objectives
At a time when climate policy faces increasing political resistance across Europe and the world, our research project “From Brown to Green: The Political Economy of Risks, Voting, and Compensation Policies” examines the socio-economic and political challenges of the green transition. The green transition inevitably produces winners and losers as it reshapes economic structures and employment opportunities. As a collaborative effort between Central European University (CEU), Bocconi University, and the London School of Economics (LSE), our project maps these distributional implications and analyzes how they influence voting behavior and support for different climate policies. Moreover, it examines compensation policies that can enable politically viable decarbonization pathways.
Current State of Play
Though still in its early stages, our project has established three complementary work packages. The CEU team is using different methodologies to classify occupations as “green” or “brown” based on their environmental impact, which allows us to map the distribution of these jobs across EU countries, sectors, and regions. The Bocconi team is examining green voting patterns across Western Europe, investigating how individual material interests, particularly occupational profiles, influence support for environmentalist platforms. Moreover, the CEU and LSE teams will each design a survey to better understand public opinion. The LSE team will conduct a nationally representative survey in France to examine preference on land-use changes that decarbonization necessitates and test strategies for overcoming resistance to green infrastructure investments. The CEU survey will focus on Germany, investigating how individuals reason about the green transition with reference to their self-interest and how voters respond to different party messages about climate policies. Both surveys will include experiments to test what types of policy design and political messaging can build broader support for ambitious climate action.
Benefits to Policymakers and Society
Recent political developments highlight the timeliness of our research. The dilution of ambitious Green Deal proposals by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in response to public criticism demonstrates how political pressures can weaken climate policy. The visible prominence of labor market concerns related to the green transition in recent European elections in Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK further underscores the relevance of our study. These trends suggest that without careful policy design and effective communication strategies, the green transition may face significant political obstacles.
Our research will provide policymakers with evidence-based insights to design more politically viable climate policies. By mapping the distributional effects of the green transition and identifying factors driving support for environmental action, we aim to help develop strategies that can build broader coalitions for ambitious climate policy. Our findings on compensation policies will particularly help address local resistance to green infrastructure projects, facilitating a more just transition.
CIVICA's Support
CIVICA's collaborative framework has been instrumental in bringing together our multidisciplinary team of political economists from three leading European institutions. This partnership enables us to combine different methodological approaches and regional expertise to tackle the complex challenges of the green transition. The network's support will culminate in a workshop at CEU in Vienna, where our teams will present their research and explore opportunities for larger grant applications to expand our work across more European countries. CIVICA's platform thus allows us to navigate the challenges of coordinating research across institutions and develop a cohesive research agenda that will ultimately contribute to a more balanced and inclusive decarbonization process in Europe.
Article credits: Björn Bremer (CEU).